For more examples, see my article: The thing is that of course it was a sunny day for the astronauts - you tend to forget when you see the black sky. On Earth some of the light comes to the landscape from the sun and some reaches us indirectly from the blue sky and the clouds. On the Moon, much of the light comes from the sun, but a lot of light also comes indirectly from the landscape itself.
Posted on September 20, by Roger Andrews Hinkley still scores on reliability and low carbon …. As for the argument that we must pay up for reliable baseload supplies, there ought to be limits to how far it can be pushed.
A nuclear premium of some level might be justified, but Hinkley lives in a financial world of its own, even before battery technology possibly shifts the economics further in favour of renewables ….
Thus spake the Guardian in a recent article entitled Hinkley nuclear power is being priced out by renewables.
What the Guardian says is, of course, nonsense. Barring Acts of God baseload nuclear is there all the time; wind is there only when the wind blows. It prices wind totally out of the market instead. N0 project cost is given for Hornsea Project 2.
The locations of Moray and Hornsea are shown below: To conduct an analysis we have to estimate how much storage will be needed to convert the wind generation from Hornsea and Moray into baseload generation, and to do this we need to know what wind output from these wind farms will be.
The results are shown in Figure 1: However, the wind blew less strongly in the second half and died away almost to nothing on the 21st and 22nd.
The next step was to convert the spiky wind output into baseload, which requires that surplus generation during windy periods be stored for re-use during deficit periods so that the generation curve comes out flat.
Surpluses and deficits were quantified relative to an MW threshold, which is the amount of continuous baseline power Hornsea generates when generation is flat-lined.
Figure 2 shows wind generation surpluses and deficits relative to this threshold: Hourly wind generation surpluses and deficits relative to MW of constant baseload output, January How much storage, which according to the Guardian will be supplied by batteries, will be needed to flatten out these surpluses and deficits?
I estimated this in two ways. First I simply accumulated the surpluses and deficits, starting with the batteries discharged, and came up with the battery charge status plot shown in Figure 3. Driven by the generation surpluses in the first half of the month the batteries charge up, reaching a maximum capacity of 95, MWh on January The resulting battery charge status plot is shown in Figure 4.
Hornsea hourly battery charge status based on Rutledge storage balance algorithm, January Beginning with the batteries fully charged, however, creates a complication. Figure 5 shows the impacts. Hourly wind generation sent to grid and curtailed based on Rutledge algorithm, Hornsea, January How to handle this complication?
Because as we shall shortly see the impacts of the added cost of battery storage on the strike price are so large that even crude approximations are meaningful.
Now to economics, and another approximation.
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Here I assume that effectively all of these costs come from debt service, meaning that there will be a direct relationship between the strike price and the initial investment. When we do this for Hornsea this is what we get: The strike price increases in proportion to the increase in total investment, i.
What does this factor-of-six difference tell us? Actually not much, because the comparison is academic. Backup gas, not battery storage, is presently the only option for smoothing out erratic wind generation, and estimating how much this might add to the Hornsea strike price would be a complex undertaking, although I might give it a shot in a later post.ASME Biennial Stability and Damped Critical Speeds of a Flexible Rotor in Fluid-Film Bearings J.
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